McLeod Group guest blog by Nyambura Githaiga, April 13, 2022
The war in Ukraine is leading to a drop in food production, higher food prices and an increased risk of famine around the world. High-income countries should take three steps to help prevent hunger from spreading. First, avoid sanctions on food and fertilizer. Second, increase food assistance in step with higher food prices. Third, prioritize famine prevention.
Before the war, global hunger was already on the rise. Over the past few years, severe food insecurity has been increasing in many countries, driven mainly by conflict. Earlier this year, the UN estimated that 43 million people, more than Canada’s entire population, are at risk of famine. Since, 2011, after a famine-free decade, conflict has led to the resurgence of famine. This year, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen have the highest alerts for famine.
The war in Ukraine is intensifying global food insecurity. In the short term, millions more forcibly displaced people will need food assistance to stay healthy. Ukraine and Russia are significant exporters of barley, wheat, maize and oil seeds, and Russia is a key exporter of crude oil, natural gas and fertilizer. The effects of the war and sanctions will reduce global supplies of food, energy and fertilizers, as well as increase the cost of food production and distribution, resulting in more expensive food and fuel for everyone and some food shortages.
For instance, since 2015, conflict in Yemen has intensified food insecurity in a country that relies on food imports. Wheat and wheat products are Yemen’s top import, with 42% coming from Russia and Ukraine. In September 2021, over half the country’s population, 16.1 million people, were experiencing crisis levels of hunger and in need of humanitarian assistance to meet their daily food requirements. At a recent high-level conference, donors pledged less than a third of what is needed to meet Yemen’s humanitarian needs. Faced with this funding shortfall, high food prices and costly shipping, the risk of famine in parts of Yemen is rising.
But it is not too late for high-income countries to respond to the growing threat of catastrophic hunger.
The first step to prevent deepening global hunger is to avoid sanctions on food and fertilizers and to minimize the impact of energy sanctions in food-insecure countries. Countries with the worst food crises have less robust social protection systems and are more likely to be also in conflict. High-income countries should support the governments of food-insecure countries to roll out hunger safety nets and to ensure the availability of subsidized agricultural inputs and nutritious affordable food for all.
A second step for high-income countries would be to peg food assistance to the rising cost of food. In a recent letter to Ministers Mélanie Joly and Harjit Sajjan, MP Heather McPherson asked for Canada to increase its minimum commitment of Cdn$250 million per year to the Food Assistance Convention (a multilateral commitment to global food security) and to index its food assistance contributions to the rising cost of food.
Food prices were rising before the war in Ukraine, partly due to the pandemic’s disruptions of food supply chains. Higher food, energy and shipping prices continue to increase the cost of delivering food assistance. The World Food Programme’s operational costs have gone up by 36% since 2019. The Canadian Foodgrains Bank has found that food suppliers in developing countries are unable to honour contracts because food prices have risen so quickly. The rising cost of humanitarian response means fewer people will be reached.
The third step for high-income countries is to prioritize famine prevention. The war in Ukraine is increasing the risk of famine for millions across the world. In 2021, the G7 countries adopted a Famine Prevention and Humanitarian Compact. This is the moment for the G7 to implement their commitments, to give more to tackling growing global hunger, to advocate for the protection of civilians and humanitarian workers in conflict zones, and to increase support for sustainable food security initiatives.
The ripple effects of the war in Ukraine are affecting food security around the world. For many people, including in Canada, it already means higher grocery bills. For hundreds of millions of others, the food insecure and those in conflict zones, it will mean missing meals or having no food at all. As efforts for peace continue, Canada and other high-income countries must act now to prevent millions from starving to death.
Nyambura Githaiga is a Senior Policy Advisor at the Canadian Foodgrains Bank. Image: Freepik.