McLeod Group blog by Laura Macdonald, September 25, 2025
On September 18, Prime Minister Mark Carney travelled to Mexico, accompanied by ministers Dominic LeBlanc and Anita Anand. Carney received a warm welcome from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, following a similar friendly meeting in June 2025, when Carney invited Sheinbaum as an observer at the G7 meeting in Alberta. Carney’s trip was widely seen as an effort to rebuild Canada-Mexico relations after several incidents weakened those ties over the past year, as well as to prepare for the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
One irritant in the relationship was Canada’s April 2024 decision to re-establish the requirement for most Mexicans to obtain a temporary resident visa before travelling to Canada. In 2016, Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, had lifted the visa requirement that had been imposed by the Harper government. The decision to re-impose it followed a rapid rise in asylum claims made by Mexicans, rising from 250 claims in 2016 to 25,236 in 2023. Thus, it was not entirely unexpected, but still a blow to Mexicans.
This setback was followed in August 2024 by the announcement by Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) that his government was “pausing” relations with both the Canadian and US embassies after the two ambassadors openly criticized Mexico’s plans for controversial judicial reforms. AMLO viewed these statements as unacceptable foreign interference in Mexico’s domestic affairs. Canadian Ambassador Graeme Clark stated at the time that Canadian investors were worried about the impact of the reform on their investments in Mexico, and also expressed concern about the elimination of independent agencies. AMLO’s successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, adopted the judicial reforms after she and their party, Morena, won a convincing victory in last July’s elections.
Those disputes were followed by increased tensions after the election of Donald Trump in November 2024. Trump’s aggressive imposition of tariffs on Canada led two panicking premiers, Danielle Smith of Alberta and Doug Ford of Ontario, to state publicly that Canada should pursue a separate free trade deal with the United States, essentially throwing Mexico under the bus. After Trump imposed 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico, Ford stated, “I want to emphasize, to compare us to Mexico is the most insulting thing I have ever heard from our friends and closest allies, the United States of America”. He added that the flow of illicit drugs and migrants is exponentially higher across the US’s southern border compared to its northern one, effectively justifying the tariffs on Mexico.
Shortly thereafter, Trudeau seemed to express similar willingness to leave Mexico out of the equation. He stated at the APEC meeting in Peru that, although he would prefer that Mexico stay part of a trilateral deal, “we may have to look at other options” if Mexico failed to address US concerns about Chinese investment in and trade with Mexico.
Those statements heightened Mexicans’ feelings that they were facing hostility from both of their northern neighbours, not just the United States. Many Mexicans were disillusioned since they expected better treatment from Canada.
While extreme, however, Ford’s – and Trudeau’s – comments echoed longstanding tendencies in Canada’s relations with Mexico. When the precursor to CUSMA, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), was first negotiated, Canada was reluctant to include Mexico, since Canadian leaders believed this would dilute the special access to the US economy, which Canada had achieved in the 1988 bilateral free trade agreement. Canada only agreed to include Mexico when it became clear that the US would otherwise go ahead with a bilateral deal with Mexico.
The weakness of the Canada-Mexico relationship and the overwhelming power of the US meant that in practice NAFTA (and CUSMA) largely took the form of two US bilateral relationships. After the 9/11 attacks, some conservative commentators like Wendy Dobson and Tom D’Aquino argued in favour of a “strategic bargain” between Canada and the US, excluding Mexico. The idea that Canada would be dragged down by its association with Mexico is a stubborn assumption which hasn’t been displaced by the growth of strong cultural, social and economic ties between Canada and Mexico.
However, it is increasingly clear that Canada is not being dragged down by Mexico. In fact, Canada has been a major target of Trump’s ire, even after the departure of the despised Justin Trudeau. Sheinbaum has appeared to be highly successful in winning the respect of the misogynist American president, a testimony to her resolution and dignity. Still, Mexico has paid a heavy cost in terms of commitments Trump has extracted around increased border security and the accommodation of deportees. It is also facing threats of military intervention in the pursuit of cartels which the US has declared terrorist organizations.
In this context, the revived friendship between Canada and Mexico is an important first step toward building a stronger relationship. In conjunction with Carney’s recent visit, the two countries announced a “comprehensive strategic partnership” and signed a new Canada-Mexico Action Plan. They committed to high levels of cooperation on a regular basis, with frequent ministerial-level consultations to increase bilateral trade and investment in infrastructure, energy, agriculture and health.
The Action Plan promises joint action on “sustainable mining development” as well, which Indigenous peoples and environmentalists in both countries may be skeptical about. It also contains new commitments on jointly promoting labour rights protections, health and wellbeing, and sustainability and environmental stewardship, among other lofty goals. In addition, the two leaders pledged to work together closely in preparation for the upcoming review of CUSMA, which must take place by July 2026. Facing Trump’s unpredictable and often irrational demands in this review will not be easy, but the two countries will be stronger working together.
Laura Macdonald is Chancellor’s Professor and Professor of Political Science at Carleton University. Photo: Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press.